The Music Catalog Market in 2026: Data, Trends, and Valuations

Key Data Points

Global Music Rights Market Overview

The global music rights market reached an estimated $4.68 billion in 2024, according to Allied Market Research. This figure encompasses publishing rights, master recording rights, neighboring rights, and sync licensing revenue across all territories. Allied projects this market to grow to $16.33 billion by 2034, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.8% — one of the highest sustained growth rates of any asset class in the creative economy. Several structural forces are driving this expansion. First, streaming revenue continues to climb globally, with platforms like Spotify, Apple Music, Amazon Music, and YouTube Music expanding into emerging markets across Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America. The IFPI reported global streaming revenue of $19.3 billion in 2023, up 10.2% year-over-year. Second, synchronization licensing — the use of music in film, TV, advertising, video games, and social media — has become a major growth vector, with sync revenue reaching $1.08 billion in 2023 according to Citigroup estimates. Third, the sheer volume of catalog acquisition activity has created a self-reinforcing cycle: more buyers in the market means higher valuations, which attracts more capital, which brings more buyers. The net result is a market that has tripled in transaction volume since 2018 and shows no signs of decelerating.

The Catalog Acquisition Boom

The modern era of music catalog acquisitions arguably began in 1985, when Michael Jackson purchased the ATV Music Publishing catalog — which included much of The Beatles' songwriting catalog — for $47.5 million. At the time, the deal was considered eccentric. Today, it is widely regarded as one of the shrewdest investments in entertainment history, with the combined Sony/ATV catalog valued at well over $4 billion. The market remained relatively quiet through the 1990s and 2000s, with transactions dominated by the major labels (Universal, Sony, Warner) and a small number of independent publishers like Primary Wave and Concord. The landscape shifted dramatically in 2018 with the launch of Hipgnosis Songs Fund, founded by Merck Mercuriadis. Hipgnosis introduced an institutional-grade investment thesis for music catalogs and deployed over $2 billion in capital, acquiring rights from artists including Shakira, Neil Young, and Fleetwood Mac. By 2024, the number of active catalog buyers had grown from roughly 10 institutional players to over 100, according to Music Business Worldwide. New entrants include Duetti (which raised $635 million), Lyric Capital Group, Influence Media Partners (backed by BlackRock and Warner Music), and dozens of smaller funds. This crowded field has compressed returns but expanded the addressable market, making it viable for mid-tier and niche catalog owners — not just superstar estates — to find competitive offers. The bottom line: if you own music rights today, there has never been a deeper pool of potential buyers.

Ambient and Wellness Music: The Fastest-Growing Segment

While headlines focus on blockbuster pop and hip-hop catalog deals, one of the most compelling growth stories in the music rights market is happening in ambient, meditation, and wellness music. Industry estimates place this segment at approximately $1.18 billion in 2024, with a projected CAGR of 23.7% through 2030 — significantly outpacing the broader music rights market. The demand is being pulled forward by several adjacent markets that have exploded in size. The global meditation app market is worth an estimated $15.3 billion and growing, led by platforms like Calm, Headspace, and Insight Timer that license or commission large volumes of ambient and functional music. The sleep aids market exceeds $100 billion globally, with audio-based sleep solutions representing a fast-growing subsegment. Corporate wellness programs, now a $60+ billion market, increasingly incorporate soundscapes, focus music, and guided audio into employee wellness platforms. This is precisely the niche that specialized buyers like SPACE Music occupy. Unlike major-label acquisition funds that focus on high-multiple, proven mainstream catalogs, SPACE targets ambient, electronic, wellness, and functional music rights — a segment underserved by traditional buyers but experiencing outsized demand growth. For creators in these genres, the emergence of niche-focused buyers means access to competitive valuations without competing against pop-catalog economics. The result is a more efficient market where genre-specific expertise translates into better deal terms for both buyer and seller.

Streaming Revenue Trends

Global recorded music streaming revenue reached $19.3 billion in 2023, according to the IFPI's Global Music Report — accounting for 67% of total recorded music revenue worldwide. Streaming has become the economic backbone of the industry, replacing the physical and download revenue that defined previous decades. Within streaming, ambient and mood-based music is growing roughly twice as fast as the overall market. Spotify alone hosts over 4 billion streams per year across its curated mood playlists — categories like "Deep Focus," "Sleep," "Peaceful Piano," and "Lo-Fi Beats" — and these playlists have become primary discovery channels for ambient and functional music creators. Apple Music's spatial audio push has further elevated immersive, atmospheric music. YouTube, meanwhile, serves as the long-tail platform where hours-long ambient mixes accumulate millions of views over years, generating steady ad-supported royalties. The rise of "functional music" — music designed for a purpose like concentration, relaxation, or exercise rather than entertainment — represents a paradigm shift in how catalogs are valued. A functional music catalog may not produce radio hits, but it can generate remarkably stable, predictable streaming income. This predictability is exactly what institutional investors prize, which is why functional and ambient catalogs are increasingly attracting multiples that rival or exceed those of mid-tier pop catalogs. For rights holders in this space, the streaming data tells a clear story: consistent, compounding usage that underpins durable catalog value.

What's Driving Valuation Multiples Up?

Music catalog valuations are typically expressed as a multiple of net publisher's share (NPS) — the annual royalty income after administrative fees. In 2018, a typical catalog might trade at 8–10x NPS. By 2024, proven mainstream catalogs routinely commanded 15–20x, with marquee assets occasionally exceeding 25x. Even niche and emerging-genre catalogs have seen multiples rise from 2–3x to 5–8x over the same period. Four structural forces explain this expansion. First, the buyer pool has grown dramatically. When only three or four major labels were bidding, price competition was limited. Today, with 100+ active buyers, auctions are more competitive and sellers have genuine leverage. Second, streaming data has proven that music catalogs are durable assets. Unlike initial fears that streaming would cannibalize catalog value, data from the past decade shows that older catalogs maintain and often grow their streaming revenue year over year. Third, institutional capital — from private equity firms, sovereign wealth funds, and pension funds — has entered the market in size. These investors are accustomed to paying premium multiples for predictable cash flows, and music royalties fit their mandate. Fourth, despite the explosion of AI-generated music, human-created catalogs have not lost value. If anything, the proliferation of AI content has increased the premium on authentic, human-authored music with clear provenance and established streaming history. For sellers, the practical implication is that the current window of elevated multiples may persist for several more years, but it is not guaranteed to last indefinitely. Rising interest rates and potential market saturation could eventually compress multiples back toward historical norms.

Outlook: Where the Market Is Heading

Looking ahead to 2026 and beyond, several trends will shape the music catalog market. AI-generated music is the most discussed wildcard. While AI tools are already capable of producing functional and ambient tracks at near-zero marginal cost, they have not yet disrupted the economics of human-created catalogs in meaningful ways. The regulatory landscape — particularly around AI training data and copyright — will heavily influence how this plays out. Rights holders who can demonstrate clear human authorship and copyright ownership may see their catalogs become more valuable, not less, as AI blurs the provenance of new music. Accessibility is another major trend. Historically, catalog sales were the domain of major artists and estates. Today, platforms and buyers are emerging that serve mid-tier and indie creators — artists with catalogs generating $5,000 to $500,000 per year in royalties. This democratization of the catalog market mirrors the broader democratization of music distribution that streaming enabled a decade ago. Partial rights sales are also gaining traction. Rather than selling 100% of a catalog, creators are increasingly selling fractional ownership — 50% of their publishing, or master rights only — allowing them to monetize their back catalog while retaining creative control and ongoing income. Finally, agent-driven commerce is on the horizon: AI agents that can evaluate catalogs, match sellers with buyers, negotiate terms, and execute transactions with minimal human intervention. This could further compress transaction costs and expand the market to even smaller catalog holders. The music catalog market in 2026 is larger, more liquid, and more accessible than at any point in history.

Market Breakdown by Genre

Deal Trends

Frequently Asked Questions

Sources

1. IFPI Global Music Report 2024
2. RIAA Year-End Music Revenue Report 2023
3. Allied Market Research — Music Rights Market Forecast
4. Citigroup GPS: Putting the Band Back Together — Music Industry Report
5. Music Business Worldwide — Catalog Deal Tracker
6. Hipgnosis Songs Fund Annual Report 2024
7. Billboard — Music Catalog Valuations
8. Statista — Music Industry Statistics
9. Grand View Research — Meditation App Market Size
10. Fortune Business Insights — Sleep Aids Market